Highlights

• • Home implied prob (1.13) = ~88.5% vs our estimate 84% → negative EV
• • Underdog implied prob (6.25) = 16% roughly equals our complementary estimate → no value

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on favorite — pricing is sharp
• + Conservative estimate reduces risk of betting on short price

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data (surface, injuries, form) increases uncertainty
• - Small market overround means slight price inefficiencies are unlikely to be exploitable

Details

We estimate Francesca Jones to be the clear favorite but, given the absence of recent matchup, surface, injury, and form data, we apply a conservative probability smoothing. We assign Jones a true win probability of 84% versus the market-implied ~88.5% (1.13). At our estimate the required decimal odds to be profitable on Jones are ~1.190, well above the current 1.13, producing a negative expected value. The complementary probability for Pigossi (16%) matches the market-implied 6.25 price threshold for profitability, so there is no clear value on the underdog either once we account for the market overround and uncertainty. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.13) ~88.5% — we assess this as overstated versus a conservative 84%
• • No available data on surface, recent form, injuries or H2H — we shrink estimates toward market
• • Market overround (~4–5%) reduces apparent value for both sides