Highlights

• • Both players have matching records and recent results—no clear superiority
• • Away price of 10.67 implies huge overlay if true win probability is near 50%

Pros

• + Huge theoretical ROI at current price if our probability estimate is correct
• + No evidence in the provided research of a fitness or form gap that would justify the short home price

Cons

• - Market price may reflect an error, late information, or bookmaker correction risk
• - If there is undisclosed injury/withdrawal or incorrect market data, the bet may be voided or odds changed

Details

The posted market (Home 1.062 / Away 10.67) implies an extreme probability split that is not supported by the available player data. Both Francesca Jones and Lina Glushko show virtually identical records (10-21) and similar recent form on clay/hard with no reported injury or clear form edge in the research. In a matchup between two players with matching records and no H2H or injury advantage, a near-50/50 true probability is far more realistic than the market's ~94% for the home. Taking the away price of 10.67 against our estimated true win probability for Glushko produces very large positive expected value. We recognize this could be a market anomaly or price-entry error, which increases execution risk, but purely from a value standpoint the away line is massively mispriced.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical recorded form and records (10-21) in the research provided
• • No injury reports, surface advantages or H2H data favoring the heavy-priced favorite
• • Market odds (home 1.062) imply near-certainty inconsistent with the available performance data