Francesco Passaro vs Dusan Lajovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Francesco Passaro at decimal 2.0 — our model estimates a 55% win chance, yielding ~10% ROI at the current price.
Highlights
- • Passaro has the stronger win-rate in the supplied data (33-22 vs 33-30)
- • Current market price (2.0) implies only a 50% chance for Passaro, below our 55% estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV = +0.10)
- + Both players on clay but Passaro's win-rate edge supports backing him
Cons
- - Limited context in the Research: no H2H, ranking, or detailed recent-match form beyond sparse entries
- - Result sensitivity to our probability estimate — a smaller true probability would remove the edge
Details
We compare the quoted prices to win-rate evidence in the provided profiles. Francesco Passaro's record in the Research is 33-22 (55-60% range) across 55 matches, while Dusan Lajovic's record is 33-30 (around 51-52%) across 64 matches. Both players have clay experience and the match is on clay (Bad Waltersdorf). The market prices imply a 50.0% chance for Passaro (decimal 2.0). Given Passaro's superior recorded win-rate versus Lajovic in the provided data and similar recent activity on clay, we assess Passaro's true win probability at 55%. At the current price of 2.0 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.55*2.0 - 1 = 0.10), so the home side shows value. We note uncertainty due to limited match-context details (no H2H, limited injury/conditioning data), but based solely on the supplied win-loss and surface mix, Passaro at 2.0 represents a profitable edge.
Key factors
- • Passaro's provided win-loss (33-22) implies a higher career win rate than Lajovic
- • Match surface is clay, where both have experience but Passaro's recent profile suggests competitive form
- • Market-implied probability (50%) is below our estimated true probability (55%), creating value