Highlights

• • Passaro: grass experience vs Squire: no grass listed
• • Current odds 1.40 imply ~71.4%; our estimate ~72.0% gives a modest edge

Pros

• + Surface familiarity advantage for Passaro
• + Better overall win-loss record this season

Cons

• - Edge is slim; small market mispricing only
• - Limited direct H2H or match-specific detail increases variance risk

Details

We view Francesco Passaro as the value side at the current price. Passaro has a superior season win-rate (33-22 vs 30-30) and importantly has played on grass before, while Henri Squire's profile shows no grass experience and most recent matches on clay/hard. On grass, transition and movement/serve patterns favor a player with prior grass exposure; that lowers Squire's probability relative to a neutral estimate. The market prices Passaro at 1.40 (implied 71.4%). We estimate Passaro's true win probability at ~72.0% based on surface edge, better overall record, and relative form — giving a small but positive edge versus the market. Using the available price (1.40) produces a slight positive EV (≈+0.8% per unit). Given limited matchup and H2H data and potential variance on grass, the edge is modest but present.

Key factors

• • Passaro has documented grass experience while Squire's profile lists clay/hard only
• • Passaro's season win-rate (33/55 ≈ 60%) exceeds Squire's (30/60 = 50%)
• • Market price (1.40) implies a probability slightly below our surface-adjusted estimate