Highlights

• • Passaro large sample and multi-surface experience; Juszczak extremely limited pro matches
• • Implied odds are too tight for the favorite (no value) and too short for the underdog relative to our probability

Pros

• + Clear qualitative edge for Passaro based on experience and activity
• + Market reflects that edge (heavy favorite), so match is low variance for favorite

Cons

• - Odds for Passaro (1.01) offer no margin for value betting
• - Small-sample uncertainty around Juszczak means occasional upsets are possible, increasing risk if backing the underdog

Details

The 1.01 moneyline implies an extremely high probability (~99%) for Passaro, but our model-based read of the matchup gives Passaro roughly a 95% chance to win. That estimate reflects a large experience and match-volume advantage (Passaro: 55 matches, 33-22; Juszczak: 3 matches, 1-2), broader surface experience, and recent match activity. To be profitable we need prices that exceed our true probability-implied fair odds (1/0.95 ≈ 1.053). At the current 1.01 for Passaro there is negative expected value. The long shot (Juszczak at 13.0) would require a win probability of at least 7.69% to be +EV; given his tiny sample size, limited pro results, and recent losses on clay, we estimate his true chance below that threshold, so that side is also negative EV. Therefore we recommend no bet at these prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-count gap favoring Passaro (55 matches vs 3)
• • Juszczak has very limited pro track record and a losing recent result on clay
• • Market-implied probability (99%) is higher than our estimated true win rate (95%), removing value