Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1/2.13) = ~46.9% vs our 50% estimate
• • Positive EV of ~6.5% on the home moneyline at current prices

Pros

• + Current home price (2.13) exceeds fair odds implied by a 50% true probability (2.00)
• + Decision based on symmetric, conservative baseline avoids overfitting limited data

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to small shifts in true probability; limited research increases uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, surface specifics, or injury information provided to strengthen the model

Details

We treat this as a near coin-flip based on the provided profiles: both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the supplied research, with no H2H or injury information to separate them. The market prices give Francisca Jorge (home) decimal 2.13 (implied probability ~0.469). We estimate Francisca Jorge's true win probability at 0.50 given the symmetric data; that implies a fair decimal of 2.00. At the quoted 2.13 there is positive value: EV = 0.50 * 2.13 - 1 = 0.065 (6.5% ROI). This edge is small and rests on the assumption of an even matchup; because the dataset is limited and form for both is weak, uncertainty is material but the current home price exceeds our min-required odds.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results in the provided research
• • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage information in the supplied data — we assume a neutral (50/50) baseline
• • Market favors the away player, but home price (2.13) is above our fair threshold (2.00), creating a small positive EV