Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Jorge (1.242) despite similar profiles
• • Away price 3.76 yields positive EV under conservative true-probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current quoted away price
• + Published data shows comparable player profiles, supporting a narrower true probability

Cons

• - Research is limited and shows little granular recent-form separation
• - If Jorge has unreported home/surface advantage or late information, edge could disappear

Details

The market heavily favors Francisca Jorge at 1.242 (implied ~80.5%), but the available player profiles show nearly identical career spans, similar overall records and the same surface experience, with recent results that do not decisively separate them. Given the symmetry in the provided recent-performance data and lack of injury or clear form edge for Jorge, we view the book's probability for Jorge as overstated. We estimate Urszula Radwanska's true win probability at ~33%; at the current away price of 3.76 this yields positive edge (EV = 0.33 * 3.76 - 1 ≈ +0.241). Therefore the away selection represents value versus the implied market probability of ~26.6%. We use the quoted prices in the Research (home 1.242, away 3.76) to compute EV and require a minimum decimal of 3.03 for our probability to break even.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles show nearly identical career records and surface experience
• • Market implies ~80.5% for Jorge which appears overstated given symmetric data
• • No clear recent-form or injury advantage for Jorge in the supplied research