Highlights

• • Market implies ~46.7% for Rocha; we estimate ~49%
• • Rocha's recent clay Challenger win and greater match experience support the higher probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (2.14)
• + Rocha's larger match sample and recent clay result reduce volatility risk relative to opponent

Cons

• - Limited direct H2H and contextual match details in the provided data
• - Mazdrashki's true form could be understated due to small sample—upside risk to the market favourite

Details

We find value on Francisco Rocha at 2.14. The market-implied probability for Rocha is 1/2.14 = 46.7%, while our read of the provided form and surface data gives Rocha a higher true chance. Rocha has substantially more match experience and a recent clay Challenger win (late August), whereas Anas Mazdrashki has a smaller sample, recent losses on clay in August, and less consistent form. Given both players are clay-capable, Rocha's greater resilience at Challenger level on clay suggests his win probability is around 49%, which exceeds the market's 46.7% and produces a positive expected value. We used the current decimal odds (2.14) to calculate EV (EV = p * odds - 1), yielding an approximate 4.9% ROI on a 1-unit stake. Key uncertainties are small-sample variability for Mazdrashki and limited head-to-head/contextual detail, so this is a measured value play rather than a low-risk certainty.

Key factors

• • Surface: both players have clay experience; Rocha has recent clay Challenger success
• • Form: Rocha recorded a recent clay win; Mazdrashki has multiple recent losses on clay
• • Sample size and experience: Rocha has far more professional matches (114 vs 27), suggesting more stable performance