Fumin Jiang/Shaoyun Liu vs Seungmin Park/S. Vujic

Highlights

• • Book odds imply ~68% for home; we estimate ~60%
• • Small samples and inconsistent/missing data increase uncertainty

Pros

• + Home pair includes a player with recent matches at this venue (Maanshan), offering slight local edge
• + Both teams have experience on hard courts

Cons

• - Both pairs have losing recent records; limited reliable form evidence
• - Stat anomalies and missing opponent profile (Vujic) make probability estimation noisy

Details

We estimate the true win probability for the home pair (Fumin Jiang/Shaoyun Liu) at approximately 60% based on both teams' weak recent records on hard courts, the slight home/local familiarity of Liu, and the lack of reliable data for S. Vujic. The market price of 1.47 implies a probability of ~68.0% (1/1.47 = 0.680). To be +EV at the offered 1.47 the true win probability would need to exceed ~68.0%, which is materially higher than our assessment (60%), so there is no value. Data quality is poor (very small sample sizes, anomalous stat entries, missing profile for Vujic), increasing uncertainty and arguing against forcing a bet at these odds.

Key factors

• • Book implied probability 68.0% at 1.47 vs our estimated 60% — gap indicates negative EV
• • Both pairs show losing records and very small match samples on hard courts
• • Data quality issues (stat anomalies, missing Vujic profile) raise uncertainty