G. Andreozzi/D. Golubev vs B. Gadamauri/J. Sels
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no reliable external information we assign a conservative 55% win probability to the home pair; at the current 1.75 price this produces a small negative EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies 57.1% for the home side vs our conservative 55.0% estimate
- • Fair price at our estimate would be ~1.818 — current 1.75 is too short
Pros
- + Home is the market favorite, indicating some perceived edge
- + If additional positive info on the home pairing emerges, value could appear
Cons
- - No match-specific research available (form, surface, injuries, H2H)
- - Current odds are shorter than our conservative fair estimate, yielding negative EV
Details
We have no external research on these doubles teams, so we use conservative priors and the available market prices. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.75 is 57.14% (1/1.75). Given the lack of form/injury/H2H data and doubles volatility, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 55.0%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be 1.818; the current market price of 1.75 is shorter than fair, producing a small negative expected value. The market also shows substantial overround, indicating bookmaker margin and uncertainty. Because our conservative probability is below the market-implied probability for the favorite, there is no value on either side at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • No external research available — conservative priors only
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.75) = 57.14%, higher than our conservative estimate
- • Noticeable market overround implies bookmaker margin/uncertainty in pricing