G. Bestetti/B. Spasova vs V. Artemeva/S. Nagornaia

Highlights

• • Away implied probability 62.1% vs our estimate 60% → negative EV at 1.61
• • Home would require >=2.50 to be +EV given our estimated 40% chance; current 2.20 is insufficient

Pros

• + Market appears to reasonably favour the away team, consistent with our conservative view
• + No contradictory data was returned, so we avoid speculative value plays

Cons

• - Absence of match-specific data (surface, head-to-head, recent form) increases uncertainty
• - If our conservative probability estimates are off, potential value could exist but is unsupported by available research

Details

We have no external match data returned and therefore use conservative assumptions. The market currently prices the away pair (V. Artemeva/S. Nagornaia) at 1.61 (implied ~62.1%) and the home pair (G. Bestetti/B. Spasova) at 2.20 (implied ~45.5%). Conservatively we estimate the away team's true win probability at 60% and the home team's at 40% based on the market tilt and lack of contradicting information. At our estimated 60% for the away side the break-even decimal odds are 1.667; the market price 1.61 is below that threshold so the favorite offers negative expected value. Likewise the home side would need ~2.50 (1/0.40) to be +EV and the market 2.20 is short of that. Given these comparisons, neither side offers value at current widely-available prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external match/injury/form data available (conservative assumptions only)
• • Market-implied probabilities: Away ~62.1%, Home ~45.5%
• • Our conservative estimated probabilities: Away 60%, Home 40% (no edge at current prices)