G. Crivellaro/M. Mecarelli vs F. Andaloro/D. Augenti

Highlights

• • Home implied chance: ~48.3% vs our estimated 50.0%
• • Required fair odds for our estimate: 2.00; current quote 2.07 provides a small edge

Pros

• + Current home price exceeds the conservative fair price for a 50% estimate
• + Simple, transparent assumption minimizes overconfidence given no data

Cons

• - Edge is small (+3.5% ROI) and is highly sensitive to the true win probability
• - No match-specific information (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to support the 50% estimate

Details

We have no external match-specific data, so we apply a conservative baseline and compare it to the bookmaker prices. The market prices the away side as favorite at 1.70 (implied ~58.8%) and the home side at 2.07 (implied ~48.3%). Absent form, surface, injury or H2H information, we assume a neutral 50.0% true win probability for the home pairing — i.e., we treat the match as effectively coin-flip but allow for small market inefficiencies. At p=0.50 the fair decimal price is 2.00; the current home quote of 2.07 exceeds that threshold and yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.50 * 2.07 - 1 = 0.035, or +3.5% ROI). This is a small edge only under the assumption the true probability is near 50%. If the true probability is lower than ~48.31% the value disappears. Given the lack of specific information, we flag the pick as a small, conditional value play rather than a strong recommendation.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available — conservative 50/50 baseline used
• • Current home quote (2.07) sits above the fair-price threshold for p=0.50 (2.00)
• • Small edge only; sensitive to small changes in true-probability estimate