G. Goldhoff/T. Winegar vs A. Delgado/S. Dostanic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: A marginal value exists on the home side at 1.13 under conservative assumptions (estimated win probability 89%), but the edge is very small and sensitive to uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability (89%) slightly better than market-implied (≈88.5%)
- • EV is positive but small (~0.6% per unit)
Pros
- + Quantitative edge vs implied market probability
- + Market price is widely available and not an outlier
Cons
- - Edge is very small and could be wiped out by minimal new information
- - Higher upset variance in doubles and lack of match-specific details increase risk
Details
We assume a conservative true-win probability for G. Goldhoff/T. Winegar of 89% based on the heavy market favoritism and absence of contrary injury or form information. The market price of 1.13 implies ~88.5% probability, so our estimate produces a small positive edge. Given no additional research data, we apply conservative assumptions about match conditions and volatility in doubles: the edge is marginal but mathematically positive (EV ≈ 0.6% per unit staked). We prefer to flag the bet as low-margin value rather than a strong overlay because of limited information and inherent upset risk in doubles.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home at 1.13 is ~88.5%, our conservative estimate is 89%
- • No external injury, form, or H2H data available to materially change the market view
- • Doubles matches carry higher variance; small edges are fragile