G. Knutson/M. Rapolu vs C. Harrison/A. Lahey

Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability ≈53.5%; our estimate 56%
• • Positive EV at current home odds: ≈+4.7% ROI

Pros

• + Home price (1.87) exceeds our breakeven threshold (1.786) given our probability estimate
• + Away player's recent form (Harrison) is a tangible negative datapoint

Cons

• - Very limited data on the home pairing introduces significant uncertainty
• - Research is singles-focused for Harrison; doubles dynamics and partner quality are unknown

Details

We see near-even market pricing (Home 1.87 implied 53.5%, Away 1.85 implied 54.1%) while the available research on C. Harrison shows a weak recent profile: a 10-21 (≈32%) career win rate across 31 matches and several recent losses on hard courts. That poor individual form (and losses at Challenger-level events) reduces the likelihood of an away win when Harrison is part of a doubles pairing, and there is no evidence provided that the away pairing has superior form or surface advantage. Given the lack of positive evidence for Harrison/Lahey and the market's roughly coin-flip pricing, we estimate the home pairing's true win probability at 56%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied home probability (≈53.5%). Using the current home decimal odds (1.87) this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.56*1.87 - 1 ≈ +0.047), so the home side represents value at the quoted price. We acknowledge uncertainty due to limited data on the home pairing and the doubles dynamics, so our margin above the market is conservative.

Key factors

• • C. Harrison's weak recent form and overall singles win rate (~32%)
• • Market is near-even (home 1.87) which underestimates home probability relative to our estimate
• • No positive evidence provided for the away pairing to justify market pricing