G. Popa/A. Safta vs S. Imbo Nloga/B. Kaur

Highlights

• • Market implies ~96.2% for the home side; our conservative estimate is 93.0%
• • Minimum fair odds for the home side given our estimate is ~1.075; current 1.04 offers negative EV

Pros

• + We are conservative given lack of data, reducing false positive value calls
• + Clear calculation shows current prices are too short to overcome estimation

Cons

• - Absence of match-specific info leaves room for unobserved factors that could change true probabilities
• - If our estimated probability underestimates the favourite substantially, EV outcome could differ

Details

We have no external match-specific data and must proceed conservatively. The market prices a heavy favorite (Home 1.04 implied ~96.15%). Based on typical uncertainty in lower-tier doubles and absent injury/form/H2H info, we estimate the favorite's true win probability at 93.0%, below the market-implied 96.15%. Using our probability, the minimum fair decimal price for the favorite is ~1.075; the available 1.04 is too short and produces negative expected value. The away side at 10.5 would require an unrealistically high true probability (~9.5%) to be +EV versus our estimated ~7% chance, so it is also negative EV. With current prices we therefore decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No match-specific research available; we apply conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for home (1/1.04) = 96.15% which exceeds our estimated true chance (93%)
• • Discrepancy likely due to bookmaker squeeze on a heavy favourite; prices are too short to offer value