Highlights

• • Normalized market probability for home = ~54.4%
• • EV at current home odds (1.71) ≈ -0.07 (negative)

Pros

• + Market pricing is coherent and shows a clear favorite
• + Conservative, margin-adjusted probability avoids overestimating value

Cons

• - No independent information (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify diverging from the market
• - Bookmaker margin reduces apparent value opportunities

Details

We have no external match data (surface, form, injuries or H2H), so we take a conservative market-based approach. The book odds are Home 1.71 (implied 58.48%) and Away 2.04 (implied 49.02%); after removing the bookmaker margin we normalize those to Home ≈ 54.39% and Away ≈ 45.61%. Using the normalized home probability as our best-estimate true probability (54.394%), the expected return at the available home price (1.71) is negative: EV = 0.54394 * 1.71 - 1 ≈ -0.06966, so the market price does not offer positive value. With no independent information to shift our probability estimate materially away from the margin-adjusted market, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data on surface, recent form, injuries, or head-to-head available
• • Market shows home favoritism but contains a bookmaker margin (~7.5%)
• • Normalized implied probability (54.39%) yields negative EV at current home odds