Highlights

• • Home implied fair odds (1.852) are below the current market price (1.91)
• • Detected EV is small (~3.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake) and sensitive to probability estimates

Pros

• + Current home price (1.91) exceeds our min required odds (1.852) giving positive EV
• + Decision based on conservative probability estimate given limited data

Cons

• - Edge is small — outcome variance and market movement could erode EV quickly
• - No additional match-specific information (injuries, recent form, H2H) was provided to strengthen confidence

Details

We compared the market prices (home 1.91, away 1.84) to our internal assessment of the matchup. The market odds imply a slight edge to the away pair once the book margin is accounted for, but our estimated true probability for the home team to win is 54.0%, which implies the fair decimal price should be ~1.852. At the available home price of 1.91 we detect a small positive edge. There are no injury, form, or head-to-head details provided, and the only concrete match context is a hard (outdoor) surface, so we conservatively size our probability to reflect limited information and market competitiveness.

Key factors

• • Available surface: hard (outdoor) — neutral baseline context
• • Market prices slightly favor the away team (1.84) after normalization
• • Limited publicly provided info (no injuries, form, or H2H), increasing outcome uncertainty