G. Dalmasso/T. Drayton vs M. Martinez/P. Mugelli

Highlights

• • Home fair-odds estimate ~1.61 (62% win probability)
• • Current home market price 1.52 yields negative EV (~-5.8% ROI)

Pros

• + Home side is favored by the market, suggesting some baseline quality advantage
• + Match on clay — a known surface that can be factored into estimates

Cons

• - Available research is minimal (only surface noted), increasing model uncertainty
• - Current prices do not offer positive expected value for either side

Details

We estimate the home duo (G. Dalmasso/T. Drayton) has roughly a 62% chance to win on clay based on the available surface note and the market favouring them; that implies fair decimal odds of about 1.61. The current market price of 1.52 for the home side is shorter than our fair odds, producing a negative expected value. The away price (2.40) would require a true win probability of at least ~41.7% to be fair; we assess the away pair below that threshold, so neither side offers positive value at the quoted prices. Given limited research (only surface noted) and no injury/form/H2H detail, we remain conservative and recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Only confirmed detail is clay (outdoor) surface; no other form/injury/H2H data available
• • Market currently prices home at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%); our estimate is slightly lower implied value
• • Bookmaker margin and limited information increase uncertainty and reduce edge