Highlights

• • Market implies 72.1% for G2; we estimate 76%
• • Required odds to breakeven on our estimate: 1.316 (current 1.386 > breakeven)

Pros

• + Current moneyline offers ~5% edge versus our conservative probability
• + Favored team with assumed roster stability and league experience

Cons

• - No match-specific intelligence (form, H2H, patch impacts) was available; estimates are conservative assumptions
• - Edge is modest—variance and model risk could flip expected outcome

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for G2 (1/1.386 = 72.1%) to our conservative estimate of their true win chance (76%). Given limited external information, we assume both teams field full rosters and weight league form and roster quality toward the established favorite. With an estimated true probability modestly above the market-implied probability, the home moneyline represents positive value: the market price underestimates G2's chance by about 3.9 percentage points. At the quoted decimal odds (1.386) this gap yields a positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for G2 (72.1%) is below our conservative estimate (76%)
• • Assumed stable rosters and no reported disruptions, favoring the established favorite
• • Karmine Corp is priced as a sizable underdog (3.06), so small mispricing on G2 yields value