Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Dan Alexandru Tomescu

Highlights

• • Market implies ~38.8% for Tomescu; we estimate ~42%
• • Positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ 0.084 per unit)

Pros

• + Tomescu's higher win-rate in the provided profile and strong 1st-serve stats in recent matches
• + Bookmaker favors the home player, which can create value on the underdog when form/sample differences are present

Cons

• - No grass-surface data for either player in the research — significant uncertainty
• - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head/context information in the provided sources

Details

We compare market-implied probability to our assessed chance. The market prices Gabi Adrian Boitan at 1.508 (implied ~66.3%) and Dan Alexandru Tomescu at 2.58 (implied ~38.8%). Both players' records in the research are heavily on clay and hard courts, with no grass experience noted — that increases uncertainty and compresses expected edges. Tomescu's career win-rate in the provided data (29-13, ~69%) is stronger on paper than Boitan's (50-28, ~64%), and Tomescu's recent match stats include very strong 1st-serve metrics, which can translate into shorter points and advantage on faster surfaces like grass even if direct grass data is absent. Boitan shows more recent matches and some losses in the same window, suggesting fatigue or form volatility. Adjusting for the unknown surface and smaller samples, we estimate Tomescu's true win probability at 42%, which exceeds the market-implied 38.8% and produces positive expected value at the available decimal of 2.58. We therefore recommend taking the away moneyline only because the computed EV is positive given the current price; however the pick carries elevated risk due to the complete lack of grass data for both players and limited H2H/contextual information.

Key factors

• • Both players' recent matches and career data in research are on clay/hard; no grass experience noted
• • Tomescu's provided career win-rate (29-13) and strong 1st-serve metrics suggest a competitive edge on faster surfaces
• • Boitan has more matches and recent losses in the provided window, and is installed as the market favorite (possible overpricing)