Highlights

• • Implied market probability: ~90.1% (1.11).
• • Our conservative true probability: 82%, producing negative EV at current odds.

Pros

• + Home is a clear market favorite, implying lower variance if truly superior.
• + Short-priced favorites typically win more often, reducing variance for moneyline bets.

Cons

• - Current price (1.11) requires >90.09% true probability to be profitable; our estimate is lower.
• - No available research on surface, fitness, form or H2H increases uncertainty and upset risk.

Details

The market prices the home player at 1.11 (implied win probability ~90.1%). With no independent information on form, surface, injuries or H2H, we take a conservative true-win estimate of 82.0% for the favorite. That estimate is materially below the market-implied 90.1%, so the current price does not represent value. To be profitable at 1.11 the true win probability would need to exceed ~90.09%, which we find unlikely given the absence of supporting data and the realistic upset risk in single-match tennis. We therefore recommend no bet unless the home price drifts to at least the min_required_decimal_odds below.

Key factors

• • Current market implies ~90.1% chance for the home player (1/1.11).
• • We conservatively estimate the home player's true chance at 82% given no supporting data.
• • Significant information gap (no form, surface, injury or H2H data) increases upset risk.