Highlights

• • Normalized market implied away probability ~23.5%; our estimate 30% (= value)
• • Required fair odds for away are ~3.333; current 3.91 exceeds that

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ +0.173)
• + Market appears to overreach on a small-sample favorite

Cons

• - Very limited player data and no direct information on the opponent — high variance
• - ITF matches can be volatile; line movement or late information could remove value

Details

We estimate the market is overpricing Gabriel Schenekenberg as a heavy favorite given the very limited sample of recorded matches (1-2 career record in three matches, all on clay) and no public injury or matchup information for Kaue Noatto. The raw bookmaker odds imply probabilities of 82.9% for the home (1/1.206) and 25.6% for the away (1/3.91); normalizing for the bookmaker margin gives ~76.5% home / 23.5% away. We conservatively estimate Kaue Noatto's true win probability at 30.0% based on uncertainty, small-sample noise in Gabriel's profile, and the reasonable chance that an under-detailed opponent in an ITF R1 match is stronger than the market assumes. At p = 0.30 the fair decimal price is 3.333; the current quoted away price of 3.91 therefore offers positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.30 * 3.91 - 1 = +0.173 (17.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake). By contrast, backing the home at 1.206 would require Gabriel to have >82.9% true win probability to be positive EV, which we cannot justify from the available data. Therefore we recommend the away (Kaue Noatto) at current prices as a value play, while noting high uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Very limited professional match data for Gabriel (1-2 record in 3 matches) — high variance
• • Bookmaker prices show a heavy favorite; normalization suggests the market gives the away ~23.5%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate (30%) implies the away is undervalued at 3.91