Gabriel Diallo vs Daniel Cukierman

Highlights

• • Current price on Cukierman (10.5) implies only ~9.5% chance
• • We estimate a 12% true chance, producing +0.26 EV

Pros

• + Large margin between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + High payout if the upset occurs, improving long-term portfolio diversification of value bets

Cons

• - Cukierman’s recent form and overall weak record increase the likelihood of a loss
• - High variance and small-sample uncertainty in estimating true probability for underdogs

Details

The market heavily favors Gabriel Diallo at 1.02 (implied win prob ~98.0%), which effectively prices him as near-certain to win. That leaves potential value on Daniel Cukierman at 10.5 (implied ~9.52%). Cukierman’s career win rate and match history are weak but not zero; challengers-level volatility and single-match variance in tennis mean an underdog in this range can plausibly have a mid-teens chance. We estimate Cukierman’s true win probability at 12.0%, above the market-implied 9.52%, creating positive expected value. Using odds 10.5, EV = 0.12*10.5 - 1 = +0.26 (26% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The bet is driven by the massive market skew toward the heavy favorite (Diallo) and the realistic upset floor for a competent pro like Cukierman on a given day.

Key factors

• • Market massively favors Diallo (1.02) producing an implied probability below plausible upset chance
• • Cukierman’s baseline career win rate and challenger-level volatility support a >9.5% upset chance
• • Recent form shows Cukierman struggling but single-match variance in tennis allows realistic upset probability