Highlights

• • Home implied probability 49.3% vs our 60% estimate
• • Minimum fair odds for our estimate are ~1.667; market offers 2.03

Pros

• + Established doubles specialists with proven teamwork
• + Better fit to hard-court conditions than the opposition

Cons

• - Grand-slam doubles can be volatile; one break can decide a set
• - Limited direct H2H data between these specific pairings

Details

We view Gabriela Dabrowski / Erin Routliffe as the value side against Sara Errani / Jasmine Paolini. The market prices the home pair at 2.03 (implied probability 49.3%). Given the surface (outdoor hard) and the profile of the pairing — Dabrowski and Routliffe are established doubles specialists and are typically stronger on faster courts — we estimate their true win probability around 60.0%. That produces positive expected value versus the market: EV = 0.60 * 2.03 - 1 = 0.218 (21.8% ROI on a single bet). By contrast, the away price of 1.787 implies ~56.0% and we judge Errani/Paolini’s realistic win chance to be materially lower (no value). We prefer the home side only because current prices exceed our minimum required odds (1.667) for a 60% win probability.

Key factors

• • Hard outdoor surface favors established doubles specialists
• • Dabrowski/Routliffe are a regular doubles pairing with strong net and teamwork skills
• • Errani/Paolini is a less consistent doubles pairing and Paolini is primarily a singles player