Gabriela Maria Vancea vs Judith Perello Saavedra

Highlights

• • Market implies Gabriela is only a 12.5% chance; our estimate is ~67.7%
• • At 8.0 the bet produces a very large theoretical ROI (EV ≈ 4.42 units per 1 staked) given our probability estimate

Pros

• + Huge edge between implied odds and our estimate based on provided data
• + Judith's supplied form and career win rate do not support a 93% market chance

Cons

• - No direct data provided on Gabriela in the research — could hide reasons for market pricing (injury, withdrawal, late info)
• - Market price on Judith may reflect information not in the supplied sources; high potential unknown risk

Details

We find clear value on Gabriela Maria Vancea at 8.0. The market implies Gabriela has only a 12.5% chance (1/8) to win, while Judith Perello Saavedra's career record in the supplied data is 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches ≈ 32% win rate) and shows recent losses, so it is implausible that Judith's true win probability here is ~93% (1/1.07). Using Judith's documented win-rate as the best available objective anchor, we infer Gabriela's win probability ≈ 1 - 10/31 = 0.677. At that estimate Gabriela's fair odds are ~1.477, far shorter than the offered 8.0, producing a large positive edge. We acknowledge limited direct data on Gabriela and possible market reasons (injury, late-line information) for the very short price on Judith, which increases execution risk, but based solely on the provided research the price on Gabriela is strongly mispriced and offers substantial value.

Key factors

• • Judith Perello Saavedra career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) from supplied data
• • Recent documented losses for Judith in the provided recent matches
• • Market-implied probability for Judith (1.07) is implausibly high given her record
• • Gabriela available at large decimal price (8.0) creating a big implied-value gap
• • Limited direct data on Gabriela increases uncertainty (possible hidden factors)