Highlights

• • Estimated true probability (home) = 60%, implied fair odds ≈ 1.667
• • Current home price 1.52 produces EV ≈ -0.088 (loss of ~8.8% per unit staked)

Pros

• + Home is priced as a clear favorite, reflecting likely small real advantage
• + If additional confirming data appears (injury, poor form for away), value could emerge

Cons

• - Current market price for the favorite is too short relative to our conservative probability
• - No source data on surface, recent form or H2H to justify a more aggressive edge estimate

Details

We have no independent data on form, surface, injuries or H2H, so we apply conservative priors and a modest home advantage. We estimate Gabriela Skrabalova (home) at ~60% win probability versus Rozalie Dohnalova ~40%. At our estimate the home fair price is ~1.667 decimal; the market price of 1.52 for the home side implies a negative expected value (EV) for a bet on the favorite, so we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • No independent recent form, surface or injury data available
• • Market makes the home player a clear favorite (1.52) leaving little margin for value
• • Conservative estimate gives the home player ~60% win chance; market-implied is ~65.8%