Gabriele Crivellaro vs Fabrizio Andaloro
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market price on Andaloro is overconfident relative to available form and sample sizes; no value at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~92% for Andaloro; our estimate ~70%
- • Required decimal odds for value would be ≥ 1.429
Pros
- + Andaloro has clear overall edge in experience and record
- + Surface compatibility likely favors the favorite
Cons
- - Market price is extremely short, offering negative EV at any realistic true probability
- - Limited data on Crivellaro introduces uncertainty but not enough to justify backing the long price
Details
We evaluated the market price (Away Fabrizio Andaloro 1.087 implied ≈ 92.1%) versus the available player data. Andaloro has a strong overall record (40-22) across clay and hard and is the clear favorite on paper; Crivellaro has a very small sample (3-5) and limited recent activity. Given Andaloro's form and surface experience we estimate his true win probability around 70%, which is materially lower than the market-implied ~92%. At the quoted price the bet has strongly negative expected value (we would need substantially longer odds to find value). With the limited data, unclear fitness/injury notes, and no head-to-head to suggest a >92% chance for Andaloro, we decline to recommend a wager.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Andaloro (≈92%) is far above what available form suggests
- • Andaloro's career win rate (40-22) indicates strong but not near-certain dominance (~64–70% range)
- • Crivellaro has a small sample size and limited recent matches on clay, increasing outcome variance