Highlights

• • Gadamauri is the stronger form/player profile on paper
• • Current odds (1.16) do not offer positive EV versus our conservative probability estimate

Pros

• + Away player has a materially better win-loss record and qualifying results
• + Market consensus correctly identifies the stronger player

Cons

• - Both players lack clear grass form, increasing variance and uncertainty
• - Short odds on the favorite don’t provide value even when accounting for higher win probability

Details

We assess Buvaysar Gadamauri as the clear favorite based on career form (25-19 vs Noce 11-27) and recent qualifying wins, but both players have limited or no proven results on grass and most matches for each were on clay/hard. The market prices Gadamauri at 1.16 (implied win probability ~86.2%). Our conservative estimated true probability for Gadamauri is 84.0% given form advantage tempered by surface uncertainty and limited direct data. At p=0.84 the fair decimal price is ~1.190; the available 1.16 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.84*1.16 - 1 = -0.0256), so there is no value to back the favorite at current prices. Given the large market margin on a short price and the unknown grass factor, we do not recommend taking a side here.

Key factors

• • Career records and recent form favor Gadamauri (25-19) vs Noce (11-27)
• • Both players have limited or no documented grass results; surface introduces uncertainty
• • Market heavily favors the away at 1.16, leaving little or no edge once surface and variance accounted for