Gabriele Piraino vs Gregor Ramskogler

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~90% for Piraino vs our ~78% estimate
• • Lack of grass experience for both players increases model uncertainty

Pros

• + Piraino has a stronger overall record and better recent results
• + Qualifying-level matchup with a clear favorite based on form

Cons

• - No documented grass matches for either player in the provided data
• - Large market favoritism compresses any profitable margin — current price offers negative EV

Details

We see a very short market price for Gabriele Piraino (1.107, implied ~90.3%) that we believe overstates his true advantage. Using career records and recent form, Piraino is the stronger player overall (40-22 vs 19-20) but neither player shows documented grass experience in the provided profiles and both have most matches on clay/hard; that increases uncertainty. We estimate Piraino's true win probability around 78% based on superior record, Challenger-level experience and recent results, which implies a fair decimal price near 1.282. At the current price of 1.107 the expected value is negative, so we do not recommend backing him at available market odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~90.3% for Piraino; our model estimates ~78%
• • Neither player has documented grass experience in the provided profiles, raising uncertainty
• • Piraino's substantially better win-loss record and recent form favor him, but not enough to justify 1.107