Highlights

• • Market implies Strombachs only ~35%, we estimate ~45%
• • No grass experience for either player increases variance but doesn't negate Strombachs' career edge

Pros

• + Current price (2.84) is well above our minimum fair odds (2.222)
• + Strombachs' superior career win-rate supports an upside versus market pricing

Cons

• - Both players have no recorded grass matches in the provided data — surface uncertainty is significant
• - No head-to-head or grass-specific form available, so our probability relies on career-level inference

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our read of the players from the provided profiles. The book prices imply Gabriele Piraino has a ~69.8% chance (1/1.433) to win, while Robert Strombachs is priced at ~35.2% (1/2.84). Both players' documented match activity is on clay and hard courts (no grass history reported), so surface uncertainty reduces the weight of recent clay form and pushes us to rely on broader career performance. Strombachs shows a stronger overall career win-rate (47-20 vs Piraino 40-22) across similar levels, which suggests he is underpriced at 2.84. We estimate Strombachs' true win probability at 45%, materially above the market-implied 35.2%, producing positive value. Calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.45 * 2.84 - 1 = 0.278 (27.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds for this probability is 1/0.45 = 2.222, below the current 2.84, so the current price offers value even after accounting for bookmaker margin and surface uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Both players lack documented grass-court history — greater uncertainty and variance
• • Strombachs has a stronger overall career W-L (47-20) versus Piraino (40-22)
• • Market heavily favours Piraino (1.433) creating a large pricing gap versus Strombachs (2.84)