Gabriele Thomas Brancatelli vs Jorge Robinson
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value available: the 12.0 price for the away player is too short relative to our conservative 6% win probability, producing strongly negative EV; we therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied away probability (8.33%) > our conservative estimate (6.0%)
- • You would need odds ≥16.667 on the away to expect positive EV
Pros
- + Current prices clearly favour the heavy favourite, which is plausible in many matchups
- + Avoids taking negative-EV longshots without supporting information
Cons
- - If unknown contextual information (injury to the favorite, surface edge, etc.) exists, value could be missed
- - Longshot variance means occasional wins could be tempting despite negative expected value
Details
We have no external research available and must be conservative. The market prices are extreme: Home 1.03 (implied P ~97.1%) and Away 12.0 (implied P ~8.33%). Given the lack of data on surface, form, injuries or H2H, we conservatively estimate the away player's true win probability at 6.0%. That is well below the market-implied 8.33% required to beat the bookmaker at 12.0. At our estimate the away line yields EV = 0.06*12.0 - 1 = -0.28 (a -28% ROI), so there is no value on the away under current prices. Likewise the heavy favorite at 1.03 is too short to offer value unless we believed the favorite’s true win probability exceeded ~97%, which we do not given the complete lack of corroborating information. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No external research or injury/form/H2H data available
- • Market implies away win P = 8.33% at 12.0; our conservative estimate is 6.0%
- • Extreme favourite price (1.03) offers essentially no upside absent certainties