Highlights

• • Market price (1.495) slightly underestimates Tiffon’s chance on grass in our view
• • Edge is small but positive — expect modest ROI with elevated variance

Pros

• + Surface advantage for Tiffon (has grass experience vs Pennaforti's clay profile)
• + Current odds offer a small positive expected value per our probability estimate

Cons

• - Edge is marginal (EV ~1.7%) and sensitive to uncertainty in limited-form data
• - No H2H or clear injury/form differentials to strongly reinforce the pick

Details

We view Pol Martin Tiffon as the more likely winner on grass: his career profile lists grass among surfaces played while Gabriele Pennaforti appears clay-specialized. The market price (away 1.495, implied ~66.9%) already favours Tiffon; we estimate his true win probability slightly higher at 68.0% based on surface fit, comparative experience on grass, and Pennaforti's clay-oriented profile and mixed recent form. That small edge produces a positive expected value versus the available decimal price. Given limited direct-form detail and no head-to-head data, the edge is modest but present at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Tiffon has recorded matches on grass in his career; Pennaforti's activity is heavily clay-focused
• • Current market implies ~66.9% for Tiffon; our model estimates ~68.0% giving a small positive edge
• • Limited recent form/H2H data increases variance; recommendation reflects a modest, surface-driven value