Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~63.2%; our estimate: 66%
• • Estimated EV at current price: ~+4.3%

Pros

• + Current home price (1.581) offers slight value versus our probability model
• + Tamara Curovic's recent losses suggest vulnerability that favors the home player

Cons

• - Very limited data on Gala Ivanovic and match-specific factors (surface, H2H, injuries)
• - Edge is modest; market could adjust quickly or the sample information may be incomplete

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to our estimate based on the available player data. The market prices (Home 1.581 => 63.2% implied, Away 2.28 => 43.9% implied) leave a small value opportunity on the home side if we believe the true chance for Gala Ivanovic is modestly higher than the market. Research on Tamara Curovic shows a long career with a roughly even career record but recent results listed indicate losses and inconsistent form, which lowers her immediate upside. There is no specific data provided on Gala Ivanovic, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we apply a conservative uplift to the home probability to reflect Tamara's recent poor form and the typical home/seed advantage implied by the market. Using an estimated true probability for the home player of 0.66 and the current home decimal price of 1.581, the expected value EV = 0.66 * 1.581 - 1 = 0.043 (4.3% ROI). Because EV>0 at current widely-available prices, we recommend backing the home player. Odds used for EV: 1.581.

Key factors

• • Tamara Curovic's recent form shows losses and inconsistency, reducing her short-term win expectation
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (1.581) is ~63.2%; our estimate for home is ~66%, creating a small edge
• • Lack of explicit data on Gala Ivanovic and venue/surface means we remain conservative in probability uplift