Galena Krastenova vs Alexandra Irina Anghel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home favorite Galena Krastenova at 1.65 because Anghel's weak record implies a lower true chance for the away player, producing ~12% positive EV on the home side.
Highlights
- • Anghel's career win rate (~32%) heavily favors the home player in this pairing
- • Market price 1.65 implies ~60.6% but we estimate ~68%, creating a clear edge
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely available odds (≈+12.2% ROI)
- + Decision rooted in documented poor form and low career win percentage for the opponent
Cons
- - Limited dataset: only Anghel's overall record and a couple recent matches are available
- - Unknowns: surface, head-to-head, and any injuries for either player are not provided
Details
We compare the market-implied probability on Galena Krastenova (1.65 -> 60.6%) to our estimate of the true win probability. The only available player data shows Alexandra Irina Anghel with a 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) and very weak recent results on hard challengers; there is no evidence of form or surface advantage for Anghel. Using Anghel's documented win rate (~0.32) as the best available baseline, we infer Galena Krastenova's true win probability ≈ 1 - 0.32 = 0.68. At decimal odds 1.65 this implies EV = 0.68*1.65 - 1 = +0.122 (12.2% ROI). The market at 1.65 understates the home player's advantage by roughly 7.4 percentage points versus the implied 60.6% probability, giving positive expected value. We remain conservative because the sample of available data is limited and surface/other matchup specifics are unknown.
Key factors
- • Away player Alexandra Irina Anghel has a poor career record (10-21 ≈32% wins)
- • Recent results show continued losses at challenger events, indicating weak form
- • Current moneyline (home 1.65) implies 60.6%, which is lower than our 68% estimate