Gamiz, A/Vedder, E vs A. Tikhonova/T. Wuerth

Highlights

• • Estimated true probability: 50%
• • Break-even odds required: 2.000 — market is shorter than that

Pros

• + Market is balanced, reflecting uncertainty — reduced risk of overlooked info
• + No clear edge can be established from available data, avoiding speculative bets

Cons

• - If additional positive data (injury, surface edge, form) exists off-record, value could be present
• - Opportunity cost: no position taken if market is slightly mispriced in our favor

Details

We have no external data on form, surface, injuries or head-to-head, so we adopt a conservative 50% win probability for each side. At our estimated true probability p = 0.50 the break-even decimal price is 2.000 (1 / 0.50). Current market prices (Home 1.87, Away 1.85) are both below that threshold. Using the most favorable quoted price for a wager (Home 1.87) gives EV = 0.50 * 1.87 - 1 = -0.065, a negative expected value. Because neither side offers positive EV versus our conservative estimate, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent information on players' recent form, injuries, surface preference or H2H — default to 50/50
• • Market prices are nearly identical (1.87 vs 1.85) implying a coin-flip market
• • Break-even odds given our probability are 2.000; current prices are below that so no value