Highlights

• • Career win rate (46/71) substantially higher than market-implied chance for this match
• • Current price 2.30 requires only ~1.923 fair odds to be profitable given our estimate

Pros

• + Strong aggregate record suggests higher baseline win probability than market implies
• + Has played on hard courts (surface likely relevant) and shown success

Cons

• - Recent losses at higher-level hard events indicate a dip in form that we partially penalized
• - No supplied data on Ilia Simakin increases matchup uncertainty and elevates risk

Details

We identify value on Gauthier Onclin at 2.30 because the market implies a ~43.5% chance (1/2.30) while Onclin's career win rate from the provided profile is materially higher (46-25 overall → ~64.8%). Even after conservatively adjusting that career rate down for recent form (back-to-back losses at higher-level hard events) and uncertainty about the opponent, we estimate his true win probability well above the market-implied 43.5%. Using a conservative adjusted true probability of 52%, the fair odds should be ~1.923; the available 2.30 therefore offers positive expected value. We note market favors the away player at 1.57 (~63.7% implied), but that contrasts with Onclin's strong aggregate record and experience on hard courts, suggesting the market may be understating Onclin's chances. Given limited information on Ilia Simakin in the supplied research, we down-weight our confidence but still find positive EV at the quoted home price.

Key factors

• • Strong career win rate (46-25 → ~64.8%) indicating baseline competence
• • Recent short-term form shows a couple of losses at higher-level hard events, lowering immediate expectancy
• • Market pricing (2.30) implies ~43.5% for Onclin — below our conservative estimated probability