Gauthier Onclin vs James McCabe
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We rate Onclin as undervalued at 2.10 based on his strong career win rate and surface versatility; our estimate (58%) yields a positive EV of +0.218 at current odds.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker-implied chance for Onclin = 47.6%, our estimate = 58%
- • Positive expected value: +0.218 per 1 unit stake at 2.10
Pros
- + High career win percentage supports a higher true probability
- + Demonstrated ability on hard courts, matching tournament surface
Cons
- - Recent listed results include losses at higher-level events, introducing form uncertainty
- - No head-to-head or opponent-specific data provided to refine the estimate
Details
We find value on Gauthier Onclin at 2.10. The bookmaker-implied probability for Onclin at 2.10 is 47.6% (1/2.10). From the provided profile Onclin has a strong career win rate (46-25, 64.8% overall) across clay, hard and grass, demonstrating surface versatility that supports a higher true win probability than the market implies. While the recent listed results show a couple of losses at higher-level events, his overall season winning percentage suggests he should be favored more than 47.6% to win this matchup. We estimate Onclin's true win probability at 58.0%, which produces a positive expected value versus the offered 2.10 (EV = 0.58*2.10 - 1 = +0.218). The market price on the away favorite (1.70) appears to understate Onclin's chances; therefore we recommend the home moneyline as a value bet at current odds.
Key factors
- • Strong career win rate (46-25) implying higher baseline probability
- • Surface versatility (has wins on hard courts) relevant to this event
- • Market-implied probability (47.6%) is notably below our estimated true probability