Gauthier Onclin vs James McCabe

Highlights

• • Market implies Onclin 47.62%; our estimate 47.0% — slight negative edge
• • Recent Onclin losses vs higher-level opponents reduce confidence despite strong career win rate

Pros

• + Onclin has a strong overall win record in the provided data
• + Has experience playing on hard courts (surface relevant to recent matches)

Cons

• - Recent listed form shows losses at higher-level events, suggesting a possible dip
• - No information provided on James McCabe, creating uncertainty about matchup dynamics

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative estimated win probability for Gauthier Onclin. The market gives Onclin decimal 2.10 (implied win probability 47.62%). Onclin's career win rate in the provided data is strong (46-25, ~64.8%), and he has experience on hard courts, but his most recent listed results show losses at higher-level events (Shanghai Challenger and US Open), suggesting form concerns vs. higher-quality opposition. With incomplete information on James McCabe in the Research, we adopt a cautious estimated true probability for Onclin of 47.0% — slightly below the market-implied 47.62%. At that probability the required fair price would be ~2.128 decimals to break even; the current 2.10 does not offer positive expected value (EV = -0.013 per unit staked). Given the small negative EV, the uncertainty around McCabe's form and ranking, and Onclin's mixed recent results, we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Onclin at 2.10 is 47.62%
• • Onclin's career win rate in provided data is high (46-25) but recent listed results show losses at higher-level events
• • Research lacks direct data on James McCabe, increasing uncertainty and reducing confidence in finding value