Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Goode: ~62.96% (1.588)
• • Kim has minimal pro data and no recorded grass results—high uncertainty

Pros

• + Market already treats Goode as the clear favorite, consistent with our view
• + Limited information on Kim supports a conservative estimate rather than inflating his chances

Cons

• - Our estimated probability (60%) is below the market-implied probability, producing negative EV at current odds
• - Very small sample sizes and no grass data make the estimate high-variance and risky

Details

We compared the market prices (Gavin Goode 1.588, implied ~62.96%) to our assessment. Jangjun Kim has a very small sample (4 matches, 2-2) concentrated on hard courts and no recorded grass results, so we downgrade his expectation on grass and give Gavin Goode a cautious true-win probability of 60%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.667; the current favorite price of 1.588 is below that threshold, producing negative expected value. Given the limited data, high variance, and the market already favoring the home player more than our model, we do not find value at the current quotes.

Key factors

• • Jangjun Kim has very limited professional match data (4 matches, 2-2) and mostly on hard courts
• • No grass-court history for Kim to justify upgrading his probability on this surface
• • Market prices Gavin Goode at ~62.96% (1.588), which is higher than our estimated 60% win probability