Gen.G vs KT Rolster
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value at current prices: Gen.G's market price (1.062) is too short versus our conservative 90% win estimate, and KT Rolster does not offer sufficient upside to justify a bet either.
Highlights
- • Gen.G implied ≈94% by the market; we estimate ≈90%
- • Fair minimum decimal for value on Gen.G is ~1.111, above the current 1.062
Pros
- + Market confirms Gen.G as a heavy favorite—low variance outcomes are common
- + Small payout on favorites reduces variance for bettors, if one were to accept lower edge
Cons
- - Current lines leave no positive expected value on either side
- - Lack of external info increases uncertainty; small differences in true probability change EV materially
Details
We compared the quoted market prices (Gen.G 1.062, KT Rolster 8.34) to conservative win-probability estimates based on the heavy market skew and absence of additional research data. The market implies roughly a ~94% win probability for Gen.G; we conservatively estimate Gen.G's true win probability at 90% given typical variance in Bo1/Bo3 environments, roster/patch uncertainty, and the lack of supporting detail. At our 90% estimate the minimum fair decimal price would be ~1.111, which is materially above the current 1.062 on offer, producing negative expected value. Conversely, KT Rolster's implied chance (≈12%) is slightly higher than our conservative estimate for an upset (≈10%), and that side also shows negative EV at the listed 8.34. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Gen.G (~94%) is higher than our conservative estimate (90%)
- • No external research returned; increased uncertainty around rosters, form, and patch effects
- • Significant bookmaker edge (overround) and tiny payout on the heavy favorite reduce value