Highlights

• • Market implies Rocha ~1.85% chance; we estimate ~2.0%
• • Minimum fair odds for value at our estimate are 50.00 — current 53.95 exceeds that

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available odds even with a conservative probability
• + Large decimal odds provide substantial upside if the small upset occurs

Cons

• - Recommendation is based on limited information (no form/injury/surface data)
• - High variance: longshot bets lose frequently and carries elevated risk

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative estimate of true win probability. The market implies Henrique Rocha has ~1.85% chance (1/53.95) and Genaro Olivieri ~98.15% (1/1.016). Given the inherent upset potential in tennis matches (variability in form, conditions, and match-day issues) and the extremely lopsided market price, we conservatively estimate Rocha's true chance at 2.0%. At decimal 53.95 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.02 * 53.95 - 1 = +0.079). We are cautious because we have no recent form, surface, injury, or H2H data; this recommendation relies on the market appearing to underprice a small but realistic upset probability. Because the signal is based on limited information, we treat this as a high-risk value play despite the positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the away player is extremely low (~1.85%)
• • Tennis has non-negligible upset risk even when one player is heavily favored
• • No recent form, surface, injury or H2H data available — increases uncertainty