Highlights

• • Buse has documented grass experience; Olivieri does not
• • Market implies ~74% for Buse; our estimate is ~60% (no positive EV)

Pros

• + Clear surface advantage to the market favorite (Buse)
• + Both players are comparable in overall Challenger-level form

Cons

• - Olivieri's lack of grass history makes the long price (3.32) unreliable as true value
• - Favorite's price gives a negative expected ROI at our probability estimate

Details

We compare the market prices (Away Ignacio Buse 1.351, Home Genaro Olivieri 3.32) to our estimated win chances on grass. Bookmakers imply Buse ~74.1% and Olivieri ~30.1%. From the available profiles, Buse has recorded matches on grass while Olivieri's profile shows only clay/hard, giving Buse a clear surface edge. Overall career records are similar, but surface experience and likely playstyle advantage on grass push our estimated true probability for Buse to ~60%. At that estimate the favorite is overpriced by the market (EV negative), and the underdog's price (3.32, implied ~30%) does not offer reliable positive expectation because Olivieri lacks grass history. Therefore we do not identify value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Buse has recorded grass matches, Olivieri has none listed
• • Form & level: both have similar Challenger-level records, but surface experience favors Buse
• • Market pricing: bookmaker odds imply a very high probability for Buse (~74%), which we view as overstated