Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Lajovic (1.221) = ~81.9%
• • Our estimated true probability for Lajovic = 75% → required odds for positive EV = 1.333

Pros

• + Lajovic has clearer grass experience and higher-level background
• + Market consensus aligns with observable surface and experience edge

Cons

• - Odds for the favorite are too short to offer positive EV under our estimate
• - Oliveiri's lack of grass matches makes the underdog less likely to provide value

Details

We estimate Dusan Lajovic is the clear favorite on grass because he has documented experience on that surface while Genaro Olivieri's profile shows no grass matches. The market price (Lajovic 1.221) implies ~81.9% chance; we estimate Lajovic's true win probability closer to 75% based on surface edge, career-level experience, and recent Challenger form for both players. At our estimated probability the fair odds for Lajovic would be ~1.333; the offered 1.221 is too short, producing negative expected value. Conversely, Olivieri at 4.49 implies ~22.3% chance but his lack of grass pedigree and a weaker overall profile make it unlikely his true win probability exceeds that implied by the price. Therefore there is no positive expected-value bet at current market prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass — Lajovic has grass experience; Olivieri does not
• • Market strongly favors Lajovic (implied ~81.9%), but our model estimates ~75% true win probability
• • Recent form at Challenger level is similar but surface profile and career experience favor the favorite