Highlights

• • Underdog Olivieri has experience edge on clay
• • Current odds (2.91) exceed our fair-price threshold (2.740)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Experience and match volume advantage on clay

Cons

• - Gaubas is the market favorite with a slightly higher career win rate
• - Margins are modest—EV is positive but not large

Details

Market prices make Vilius Gaubas a strong favorite (implied ~69.8%) while Genaro Olivieri is priced as a sizeable underdog (implied ~34.4%). From the supplied profiles, Olivieri brings substantially more match experience (536 career matches) and proven clay experience, while Gaubas has a slightly better raw win percentage but far fewer career matches. Given both players are active in the same Seville Challenger and recent form lines are similar, we believe the market is overstating Gaubas's edge and understating Olivieri's chance. We estimate Olivieri's true win probability at 36.5%, which requires fair decimal odds of ~2.740. The current price of 2.91 therefore offers positive expected value (EV = 0.062 per 1 unit staked). We use the available market quote of 2.91 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Olivieri's substantially larger career match sample and clay experience relative to Gaubas
• • Both players show similar recent results in the Seville event, suggesting form is comparable
• • Market implies a very high probability for Gaubas; current Olivieri odds (2.91) appear to contain value versus our estimated true probability