Highlights

• • Home implied chance 30.8% vs our 34.0% estimate
• • Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ 0.105)

Pros

• + Price offers a cushion vs our probability estimate
• + Blancaneaux activity at the Szczecin clay event supports comfort on surface

Cons

• - Galan's superior overall record and higher career win-rate present real upset risk
• - Research data is limited on direct H2H and recent clay-specific form, increasing uncertainty

Details

We believe the market (home 3.25, implied 30.8%) is underestimating Geoffrey Blancaneaux's chance. Although Daniel Elahi Galan has the stronger overall record (40-32 vs 29-37), Blancaneaux has recent activity in Szczecin on clay and both players have clay experience, which narrows the gap. Galan's recent results shown are losses on hard courts (US Open), which may indicate reduced form or transition issues to clay; combining Blancaneaux's career win rate and recent event familiarity on clay we estimate Blancaneaux's win probability materially above the market-implied 30.8%. At our estimated true probability (34.0%) the home price 3.25 yields a positive edge (EV = 0.105 per unit). We therefore recommend the home side only because expected value is positive at the publicly displayed 3.25 price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~30.8% (3.25) vs our 34.0% estimate
• • Galan has the better career record but recent losses on hard courts may reduce form edge
• • Blancaneaux has recent activity at Szczecin on clay (venue familiarity) which supports slightly higher chance