Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Daniel Elahi Galan

Highlights

• • Market implies ~73.5% for Galan at 1.36; our estimate is 72%
• • Underdog price 3.18 implies ~31.4% — still above our estimated chance for Blancaneaux

Pros

• + Galan's stronger overall record supports him as favorite
• + Both players have grass experience, reducing surface-specific surprise risk

Cons

• - Limited recent grass-specific performance data increases uncertainty
• - Both players show recent mixed form (Galan recent hard-court losses; Blancaneaux recent Challenger losses)

Details

We model this as a matchup where Daniel Elahi Galan is the clear market favorite (1.36) and Geoffrey Blancaneaux is the underdog (3.18). From the provided records Galan has a stronger overall win-loss (40-32 vs 29-37) and both players have some grass experience, but the recent form snippets are mixed (Galan with late hard-court losses at the US Open; Blancaneaux with Challenger losses on clay). Given the limited, surface-agnostic data, we conservatively estimate Galan's true win probability at 72% (0.72). The market-implied probability at 1.36 is ~73.5% so the price does not offer value versus our estimate. Conversely, Blancaneaux's implied chance at 3.18 (~31.4%) is slightly higher than our estimated true chance for him (~28% = 1 - 0.72), so backing the upset also lacks value. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Galan has a materially better career win-loss record in the provided data (40-32 vs 29-37)
• • Surface is grass; both players have some grass history but no clear grass-form edge in the supplied data
• • Market-implied probability for Galan (≈73.5%) exceeds our conservative estimate (72%), so no value on the favorite