Highlights

• • Market implies ~83.8% for Blancaneaux — we view this as overstated
• • Bocchi at 4.74 requires only ~21.1% true probability to be +EV; we estimate ~30%

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current odds based on our probability model
• + Bocchi's superior win-rate in supplied data supports an underdog play

Cons

• - Limited or no grass-specific data for Bocchi increases uncertainty
• - Both players have recent losses, raising match volatility and risk

Details

We see the market heavily favors Blancaneaux at 1.193 (implied ~83.8%), which requires a >83.8% true win probability to be +EV on the favorite. Our assessment diverges: Lorenzo Bocchi's career win rate in the provided data (19-11) is substantially better than Blancaneaux's 29-37, indicating Bocchi is the stronger form/ability signal overall despite much of his experience being on clay. While the surface (grass) slightly tilts toward Blancaneaux because Bocchi's listed matches are clay-only, that surface edge is unlikely to justify the market pricing gap. Conservatively we estimate Bocchi's true win probability at 30% (0.30). At the available away price of 4.74 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.30*4.74 - 1 = 0.422). Therefore we recommend backing the away player at the current market price because the market appears to overprice Blancaneaux relative to Bocchi's demonstrated win rate and overall form.

Key factors

• • Bocchi's superior win-loss record in the provided data (19-11 vs 29-37) suggests a higher baseline win probability than market implies
• • Market heavily favors Blancaneaux (implied ~83.8%), a price point that requires near-certainty we do not see in the data
• • Surface is grass and Bocchi's documented matches are clay-heavy — this reduces Bocchi's edge but unlikely to justify the market gap
• • Both players show recent losses, increasing variance and making the market prone to overreaction to name or local conditions