Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value play on Blancaneaux at 4.35 because a realistic true win probability (~30%) yields positive EV (≈0.305). The pick carries medium risk due to limited data and Challenger-level variance.
Highlights
- • Current odds for Blancaneaux (4.35) imply ~23% — we estimate closer to 30%
- • Positive EV: 0.305 per 1 unit stake at current price if our probability holds
Pros
- + Significant edge vs implied market probability
- + Underdog payout is large enough to justify variance
Cons
- - Tirante is the stronger player by record and is rightfully favored
- - Limited surface-specific and head-to-head data increases uncertainty
Details
We find value backing Geoffrey Blancaneaux as the underdog. The market prices Thiago Tirante at ~81% implied win probability (1.231 decimal) which appears inflated versus the on-paper gap: Tirante has the stronger overall record (54-33 vs 29-37) and recent Challenger form, but both players have grass experience and there is limited head-to-head or injury information to justify such a large margin. Using a conservative true probability of 30% for Blancaneaux (reflecting a clear underdog but not a 20%-range shot), the current 4.35 price offers positive expected value. Key uncertainties are small sample size on grass and the typical volatility of Challenger-level semis, so we assign medium risk despite a healthy EV.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors Tirante (implied ~81%), likely overstating the gap
- • Both players have grass experience; Blancaneaux is not a pure grass novice
- • Limited H2H and small-sample form make the favorite less certain in a Challenger semi