George Lazarov vs Marlon Vankan

Highlights

• • Market overprices Lazarov at 1.40 despite weaker form and smaller sample
• • Vankan at 2.75 implies ~36% chance; our estimate is ~55%, creating large edge

Pros

• + Clear edge from experience and larger match sample for Vankan
• + Both players on clay reduces surface-based uncertainty
• + Current decimal price (2.75) yields a high positive EV

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and some recent mixed results for Vankan — introduces variance
• - Small total match count for Lazarov increases outcome volatility

Details

The market prices George Lazarov as a 1.4 favorite, but the underlying data indicates Marlon Vankan is the superior player overall and more experienced on clay. Lazarov has a small sample (11 matches, 4-7) and recent form is weak, while Vankan has substantially more match experience (47 matches, 24-23) and a more stable recent record on clay. Given both players are clay specialists, surface doesn't materially advantage Lazarov. Using a conservative true-win probability of 55% for Vankan versus the market-implied probability of ~36.4% (2.75 decimal => 1/2.75 = 0.3636), we find strong positive expected value. At the quoted away price of 2.75 EV = 0.55 * 2.75 - 1 = 0.5125 (51.25% ROI per unit), well above zero. Key uncertainties are limited head-to-head data, small-sample variance for Lazarov, and any unknown fitness issues, but given the available profiles the away price offers clear value.

Key factors

• • Vankan has a larger match sample and a winning record (24-23) versus Lazarov's 4-7
• • Both players play clay, so surface does not favor the market favorite materially
• • Market-implied probability for Vankan (36.4%) is well below our estimated true probability (55%)