Highlights

• • Market-implied prob for home = 42.9% vs our estimate 47%
• • Breakeven decimal odds on our estimate = 2.128; current price 2.33 > breakeven

Pros

• + Current odds (2.33) provide a clear numeric edge versus our probability
• + Research does not show a decisive advantage for the market favorite

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form which increases variance
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or injury detail in the provided research to reduce uncertainty

Details

We find value on Georgia Pedone (home). The market prices Barbora Palicova as a clear favorite at 1.58 (implied ~63%), but the provided research shows near-identical career records (both 10-21), identical recent-form notes, and no surface or injury edge for Palicova. Given the lack of differentiating evidence, we estimate the true win probability for Pedone materially higher than the market-implied 42.9% — we use 47%. At the quoted home price of 2.33 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.47*2.33 - 1 ≈ +0.095). The minimum decimal price required to break even on our probability is 2.128; the current 2.33 exceeds that, so the home side offers value. We do note uncertainty because both players show poor recent form and there is no H2H or ranking data in the research.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and play the same surfaces
• • Recent form in the research shows losses for both; no clear performance edge
• • Market heavily favors the away player but the provided data does not justify that gap